I’ve been insanely busy the last few weeks in general and haven’t been able to get out as much content as I’d like. So I wanted to at least get out a general discussion post followed by a general blog update for everyone.
Topics for today:
- SIRC – Price slip, Arbiter, and perspective
- AITX – Steady share price and my thoughts
- ALPP – Annual report first impressions
- New series teaser
- General blog update
Let’s get started!
SIRC – Price Slip, Arbiter, and Perspective
As I’m sure everyone is disappointed with, the SIRC share price has been slipping pretty regularly the last month or so. What I think this has boiled down to is an annual report released that basically told us what we already knew/expected, but most importantly Arbiter.
Arbiter money was supposed to have been completed by now, I think the last I heard was the end of the month or by the time they filed their annual report. We’re now well passed that and (I don’t think) we’ve heard much on that front other than Brett Rosen saying it’s for real.
Basically since the Arbiter deadlines were missed, the share price has taken a pretty solid tumble. As of writing this, the share price has dipped below 0.30 per share, which would constitute an almost 20% drop from just a few weeks ago.
Given that some people are getting antsy and upset about all of this, I think everyone needs some perspective on Arbiter. Remember, SIRC is not a company running on fumes and racking up huge losses each quarter in the hopes of future gains. The company is already profitable (albeit not generating positive cash flow due to longer sales days outstanding), so it’s not like the company is going under if Arbiter doesn’t fall through.
The purpose of Arbiter is to inject exponential growth potential into the company via acquisitions (mostly), rather than a more organic approach which is what they’ve been forced to do while waiting for Arbiter. In my opinion, the share price is pricing in less than exponential growth under the assumption that either Arbiter doesn’t happen, or Arbiter doesn’t provide sufficient ROI.
So I say this as a long, if you truly believe in management and that Arbiter will get done, then I think you will be rewarded if/when Arbiter comes through. But if it doesn’t, it isn’t the end of the world and I think SIRC will be just fine without it.
So be patient, take a deep breath, this is not a do or die company like so many on the OTC.
AITX – Steady Share Price and My Thoughts
Steve brought this up again on one of the weekend updates (I think). AITX has been trading pretty flat for about four months now, which is a stark contrast to the prior 12 months where it was in basically free-fall after the great hype of early 2021.
Now, kind of like SIRC, I think people need to look at this with some perspective because it’s made some people upset seeing a flat share price. AITX as a company is in a pretty heavy executional mode right now, and honestly just at the beginning of it. Remember, they’re just now launching and deploying 3.0 units, have now had the REX underway and getting better for almost a year now, they’re doubled headcount (generalizing) and sales are still coming in steadily. If you think about where the company was even 12 months ago, this is night and day.
What I’m trying to say is, the reason the share price is steadying is, in my opinion, because AITX as a company is becoming much more stable than it was before. The fact that we’re not seeing wild swings every day anymore is a testament to that. Now, AITX still has a ton of work to do, and they know that. But it isn’t a company in complete free-fall hanging by a thread. They’re getting better every day and progress is showing.
That being said, given the way they’re investing in the company and where their spend is, we aren’t going to see large share price movements until we start seeing hundreds of units out the door per quarter. Right now they’re hovering near 250 units deployed and are nowhere near breaking even. Once we start seeing more traction on sales and consistently seeing, say, one hundred units a month shipping from the REX, then I think we’ll see it reflected in the share price.
But right now, AITX is just at the beginning of this phase. In my opinion, this was never going to happen before this year and it may not even get into full swing until next year. So as always, please be patient and don’t get too bent out of shape over flat trading. If you believe the products and management, you can feel good about your investment. Maybe it won’t work, maybe it will, but as long as you believe in it that’s all you can ask for.
ALPP – Annual Report First Impressions
Now, I’m still doing my research on ALPP’s FY 2021 annual report and hope to have some analysis out soon. But in general, I could sum up my initial thoughts as follows: Rough year operationally, great year for acquisitions, and unexpected or surprising in the annual report.
I’ll expound on it more in some full articles, but in general 2021 was a pretty crazy year for ALPP. We saw a ton of acquisitions, an economy turned upside down by COVID, and a complete shift in business strategy by the company which all resulted in a pretty rough looking 10k. But like I said, it wasn’t unexpected, I was saying this for weeks (and so was ALPP), so this is why we didn’t see some massive sell-off once the 10k dropped.
Granted, the share price has been getting eaten alive lately, which brings me to my final point…
Remember that an annual report is backwards looking. Think about how rapidly ALPP is trying to grow and transform their businesses. This is not the type of company where you focus on the past to predict the future. They’re completely disjointed. So when you see the price today, just close your eyes and think about the future of the company, not what happened in 2021.
More to come here.
New Series Teaser
I am not quite ready to announce it yet because I haven’t thought it all through. But I have a new article series idea that will be a completely different concept to what I’ve been doing so far. Without giving too much away, it’s going to focus on some more unknown companies on the OTC that I really like. These are the “un-sexy” companies that most will have never heard of, and they’re going to be extremely small in terms of market cap.
Because they’re more unknown companies, I don’t think these will draw as much of a crowd. But it seems like such a fun idea that I’m going to do it anyways!
I’m hoping to launch this new articles series very soon, so stay tuned!
General Blog Update
Feel free to stop reading if you don’t care 😊. Like I said before, I’ve been super busy at home lately and haven’t had the energy to write as much as I used to. I never enjoy writing when it feels like a chore. So lately if I haven’t felt like writing, I just haven’t. Because of this, I haven’t really posted much the last couple of weeks and haven’t been releasing things as quickly as I’d like to.
This has all sort of culminated to another decision I decided to make. I’m going to suspend my Patreon indefinitely. With the Patreon, it’s a double-edged sword of giving me motivation to write but also some self-imposed pressure to write even when I may not want to. To be clear, literally none of my Patrons have been poking me with a stick telling me to write more, not even close. My Patreon doesn’t even come with benefits. It just gives me a better headspace when writing, deciding how often to write, etc.
So for now, I’m going to suspend it and maybe replace it with a one-time donation type thing. But we’ll see. Anyways, you Patrons are awesome and feel free to keep messaging me whenever you’d like.
Anyways, thanks for reading as always!
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DISCLAIMER – AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS ARTICLE I HAVE A LONG POSITION IN $SIRC, $AITX, AND $ALPP. THIS ARTICLE IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE AND IS INTENDED ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR.